Urgent global action is needed to prevent further harm to civilians
Armed actors are dramatically escalating their use of unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs), more commonly known as drones. Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC)’s Protection of Civilians Trends Report compiles and analyzes data on drone attacks. The most recent statistics are alarming. Data shows that drone attacks in conflict settings increased by an astonishing 4,000 percent between 2020 and 2024, and more than quadrupled from an estimated 4,525 attacks in 2023 to 19,704 in 2024.* With the Ukrainian armed forces set to triple their production of drones in 2025, overall drone usage is likely to set new records this year. Drones are now used across a broader range of conflicts than ever before, not only by states but increasingly by non-state armed groups. The expansion in drone use is fundamentally reshaping the way war is fought and, critically, how civilians experience harm.
Major changes in technology and cost are driving the surge in drone use. At the start of the 21st century, U.S. military drones cost around $7 million each and had a wingspan of 66 feet. Many of the drones deployed in conflicts today are being commercially mass-produced and are available for purchase on Amazon for as little as $2,000. These small, hand-held commercial drones are deadly when outfitted with explosive or incendiary devices, or when used as loitering munitions. They are also highly expendable.
Nowhere has the transformation been more visible than in Ukraine. The Ukrainian government is deploying millions of drones annually with the goal of halting the military aggression of Russia — a military superpower with a defense budget more than double that of Ukraine. Estimates show that drones have accounted for roughly 70 percent of Russian losses since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Western analysts and news outlets have celebrated Ukrainian drone successes, such as a covert operation in 2024 that damaged more than 40 aircraft deep inside Russian territory.
Yet drones have also become a weapon of terror in this conflict. The Russian military has deployed them to directly target Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure. For several months in 2025, first-person view drones were the leading cause of civilian casualties in the conflict, while Russian drone strikes on hospitals and schools crippled access to critical services like medical care and education.
Beyond physical harm and destruction, drones inflict an enduring psychological toll on civilians, creating an atmosphere of fear. A Ukrainian man that CIVIC interviewed described three of the war’s hardest periods to endure: the initial invasion, the winter of 2022 (when attacks against infrastructure left civilians without power and heat), and finally when drones became commonplace in 2024.
“In the fall of 2023…I slept so well,” the Ukrainian civilian told CIVIC. “Now, when you sleep, a drone flies above you and you think whether it will hit your house now or fly somewhere further, and it is very scary, and now it has become much more…sirens sound 10 times a day, drones fly at night.” He added: “Even I can judge for myself, this has a very strong impact on mental health, on sleep and psychological integrity and resilience.”**
The dynamics in Ukraine mirror a wider problem. Drones are not inherently indiscriminate weapons like cluster munitions. They can be used in compliance with the laws of war, or in violation of them to target civilians. But cheap and ubiquitous commercial drones are harder to regulate than more traditional but similarly destructive weapons of the past.
Moreover, drones can be deployed covertly and extra-territorially, often without the presence of any combatants from the deploying force nearby, which complicates attribution and accountability. Two decades ago, a drone strike in Somalia that accidentally killed civilians could be confidently traced to the U.S. military, making it possible to seek redress. Today, a wider range of actors, including the Turkish military, the United Arab Emirates military, the Somali National Army, and non-state armed groups such as Islamic State – Somalia and al-Shabaab, are all deploying drones in Somalia.
The sheer number of drone attacks makes it harder to track, investigate, and hold perpetrators accountable for civilian harm.
The proliferation of drones is also threatening the delivery of life-saving humanitarian aid to civilians in need. Until 2022, fewer than 10 drone-related incidents affected healthcare or aid delivery each year, according to data compiled by Insecurity Insight. In 2023, that number climbed to 84. In 2024, that same figure soared to 308 incidents. In some cases, the growing threat from drones has caused humanitarian actors to suspend or end programming. And while humanitarians have tried to also use the technology to their advantage by delivering aid via drones, the difficulty in marking and distinguishing humanitarian drones from those deployed by combatants has undermined this potential benefit.
Although most drones on today’s battlefields are still operated by humans, there is a push to shift to a greater reliance on artificial intelligence-augmented systems and increasingly autonomous drones. This shift could further endanger civilians and complicate accountability efforts.
To date, many countries have prioritized profits and military advantage from the drone trade over civilian protection and accountability. A multifaceted effort by states is needed to change course. States should develop shared norms and commitments governing drone use in compliance with international humanitarian law (IHL). This effort should establish robust systems for civilians to report casualties from drone strikes and for states to investigate them. Improvements in digital and visual identification systems to distinguish humanitarian drones from combatant ones are needed. Thorough training programs for drone operators, including on international humanitarian and human rights law, could mitigate civilian harm. Finally, the international community should encourage commercial drone manufacturers to implement safeguards that prevent unlawful use in conflict.
Drones are transforming warfare at a rapid pace that states have not yet been able to fully grapple with. Without urgent, collective action to contain the risks and strengthen civilian protection, the technology that has revolutionized the battlefield will also redefine human experiences of war for the worse, expanding the scale of human suffering.
* Based on CIVIC’s analysis of drone attack data compiled by Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED).
** This interview was conducted as part of the Beyond Compliance Consortium (BCC), a project focused on building an evidence-based understanding of civilian harm and need in conflict, as well as what factors promote restraint from causing harm and the compliance of armed actors with legal frameworks. For additional information on the BCC work, see: https://beyond-compliance-consortium.org/.
– Lauren Spink, Published courtesy of Just Security.
