To address significant housing destruction in Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war, the authors of this RAND report propose a way to plan post-conflict shelter in Gaza and rebuild its communities. Recognizing that reconstruction will be a long-term, multidecade process, they propose a multifaceted approach to shelter in ways that create well-planned, sensible future urban footprints; restore communities; enable people to live in decent conditions during reconstruction; and reduce the risks of long-term encampment. To do so, they integrate lessons learned from post-conflict and post-disaster recoveries, analysis of the destruction and built environment in Gaza, and urban planning methods.
The authors delineate multiple housing approaches that will all be needed in combination: new types of camps that lay the foundation for future neighborhoods, traditional camps, razing and rebuilding completely destroyed neighborhoods, rebuilding habitable urban areas through an urban planning technique called incremental urbanism, construction of new neighborhoods, and sheltering outside Gaza for those who choose it.
In neighborhoods and camps that meet criteria, the authors propose the incremental urbanism approach. They illustrate six steps for implementing this concept, blending living in buildings, tents, and caravans with access to community hubs that offer sanitation, utilities, food, and services, all while reconstruction is underway nearby.
The authors also developed a planning method to determine which approach could be used in which locations throughout Gaza, based on characteristics of the built environment, landscape, and destruction levels. They offer illustrative default and future-oriented scenarios. In the future-oriented scenario, rebuilding is approached as an exercise in long-term city planning.
Key Findings
Multiple challenges complicate provision of post-conflict housing in Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war
- The war displaced 90 percent of Gaza’s 2.2 million people and damaged or destroyed 70 percent of its housing. Most of the 42 million tons of rubble are from destroyed housing.
- In multiple previous post-conflict cases, recovery has been slower than expected; similarly, Gaza’s recovery will take decades, with costs greater than $50 billion. Hundreds of thousands of Gazans will need interim shelter for a decade or longer while homes are being rebuilt.
- Camps are a typical solution to civilian displacement in war. However, temporary displacement camps often become permanent, providing poor quality of life and environments supportive of radicalization, as illustrated by camps built in Gaza in 1948.
The authors propose principles that interim housing in Gaza should aim to achieve
- Meet the needs of communities during reconstruction.
- Ensure that interim approaches support long-term needs.
- Develop appropriate governance structures for rebuilding housing, and engage Gazans in planning and the workforce.
- Enable efficient import of construction materials.
Various options for post-conflict shelter could meet these goals and avoid pitfalls
- The authors present the following options: a new approach to camps called future-oriented camps, traditional camps, razing and rebuilding completely destroyed neighborhoods, rebuilding partially damaged neighborhoods incrementally while Gazans are resident, new neighborhoods on undeveloped land, and sheltering outside Gaza for those who choose.
- The authors also developed a method for planning where these options can be used in Gaza based on the built environment and damage levels.
