A recent flare-up of fighting has put Ethiopia once again on the brink of war. The escalation in the northern Tigray region in January prompted the government to suspend flights to Tigray, and buses to Addis Ababa were packed with panicked passengers, as people rushed to withdraw cash from banks, fearing that conflict was returning.
As Ethiopia faces the prospect of renewed war, its leaders and those in countries of influence such as the United States would do well to remember the devastation wrought in Ethiopia’s last war in Tigray in 2020-2022, the impact of which continues to be felt by the people of Tigray every day. The horrifying death toll alone has been estimated as high as 600,000 people, more than that in the recent Israel-Gaza war, and even more than the 1984-1985 famine in Ethiopia.
With the possibility of new fighting, the United States and the rest of the world must heed the risks and act now to avoid an even greater cataclysm. The following are some urgent reminders, followed by recommendations for action:
- The death toll of the 2020-2022 Tigray War was among the highest in modern world history, and renewed fighting would likely be even bloodier and more widespread.
Over the course of just two years, in addition to the 600,000 people killed, millions more were displaced, injured, and separated from families. Many are still unaccounted for, or bear the scars of widespread human rights violations, including conflict-related sexual violence.
If a new conflict emerges, it will affect more than just Tigray. Neighboring regions inside Ethiopia, such as Amhara and Afar, could be engulfed in the conflict, and other countries in the region, including Sudan and Eritrea, would also be affected far more than in the last conflict. The Ethiopia-Eritrea alliance that fought against Tigray has fractured, with their respective leaders in Addis Ababa and Asmara, respectively, supporting different Tigray factions and pitted against each other. Furthermore, both Ethiopia and Eritrea are supported by various Gulf countries: the United Arab Emirates supports Ethiopia, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt backing Eritrea. The potential for a proxy conflict playing out in Tigray is therefore higher. The players include Sudan, now involved in its own civil war, with Ethiopia supporting the Rapid Support Forces and Eritrea backing the Sudanese Armed Forces. If the conflict breaks out, it would engulf multiple countries, with catastrophic human and humanitarian consequences. The spread of the conflict could easily create higher death rates than those observed during the 2020-2022 conflict.
- Violence was routinely used as a weapon of war, and women and girls are likely to pay a particularly high price if the conflict resumes.
Staggering numbers of women and girls survived conflict-related sexual violence. Health workers and advocates have reported assault survivors ranging from young girls all the way through to elderly women, with some women gang raped or held in sexual slavery. There have been very few resources available for their recovery, and most women cannot afford treatment or access to the care they need. Medical professionals reported spikes in cases of traumatic fistula, an injury associated with extreme sexual violence.
Women understand that if conflict returns, they are likely to face new attacks from a range of actors. Due to aid cuts from the US and other donors, local women’s groups running shelters have had to cut staff and support to survivors. Some organizations have reported knock-on effects from the conflict, including increased intimate-partner violence and even femicide. Women’s groups in Tigray have indicated women are seeking morning-after pills to stockpile, knowing that they may be raped if conflict returns.
- Internal displacement has been extensive and protracted, as many cannot return home. A new conflict could displace millions again and lead to increased migration to neighboring countries, as well as to Europe, the Middle East, and beyond.
The war displaced some 2.6 million people, and 1 million remain displaced today. Internal displacement that has gone unresolved is leading to a range of other challenges and issues for Tigray, including large numbers of children out of school for more than five years, destroyed infrastructure, and a deeply damaged health system. Resolving displacement issues is key to implementing peace and rebuilding the region.
While many stayed within Ethiopia’s borders, others fled to neighboring Sudan, now suffering its own bloody conflict. Increasingly, Tigrayans are choosing to undertake long and dangerous journeys to seek refuge and livelihood opportunities in Europe and beyond. The threat of renewed fighting has prompted many to flee in advance. Renewed fighting could mean that European countries would see a sharp increase in the number of Ethiopians seeking refuge in the years to come. Those left behind are more likely to be poor, elderly, disabled, or unable to flee for other reasons.
- The international aid community failed to adequately support Ethiopians during the 2020-2022 conflict.
The international aid community did not rise to the moment during the last conflict and has not done enough in recent years. During the war, the Ethiopian government and its allies imposed an aid blockade on the little support that was heading to Tigray, a blockade that brought millions to the brink of starvation. Even after the blockade was lifted, there was a surprisingly small scale-up in humanitarian response, given the scope of the need.
In the year after the war ended, an aid corruption scandal implicating Ethiopian, Tigrayan, and Eritrean officials, prompted the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to pause all food assistance. It did not restore the majority of aid for more than five months. In 2025, the U.S. government and other donors imposed severe cuts, leaving people in dire straits. In response, the region has seen malnutrition rates increasing, and services are dwindling. In this context of ever-shrinking aid in the region, it seems even less likely that the aid community would adequately address a new humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia.
Local groups have long stepped up to meet their communities’ needs, but they require additional resources, especially given the dangerous environment in which they operate.
- The 2020-2022 Tigray War affected more than just Tigray. New fighting could be even worse for the Horn of Africa and beyond.
The conflict involved a range of actors, including the Eritrean military, the Amhara militia, the Ethiopian Defense Forces, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). It also drew in other armed actors from abroad, and caused shockwaves across the Horn of Africa. Eritrean forces committed widespread atrocities and showed no inclination to withdraw even after the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement between the Ethiopian National Defense Force and the TPLF, an accord for a cessation of hostilities, mandated the departure of external forces.
During the war, evidence also emerged of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE’s) provision of drone technology and support to Ethiopian forces. Drones were used extensively in the conflict and contributed to civilian casualties and terror among the population. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar also have varying degrees of interest and influence in Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa.
Sudan absorbed tens of thousands of Ethiopian refugees during the 2020-2022 war. Now, with Sudan itself engulfed in a devastating civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that began in mid-April 2023, it is unlikely to have the capacity to absorb more refugees should war break out again in Ethiopia.
Today, Tigray is more fractured and alliances within Ethiopia and with other countries are more complex. Major renewed fighting in Tigray, conceivably involving Eritrean forces, weapons from rival Gulf states, and occurring alongside Sudan’s civil war, could create a humanitarian catastrophe that destabilizes the entire region for years to come.
Five Actions That Could Help Avoid the Worst
The widespread impacts of the 2020-2022 Tigray conflict are clear. Failure to act early and robustly to prevent fighting and ensure aid delivery led to massive deaths, sexual violence, displacement, and hunger, all of which spilled over into neighboring countries and reverberated even beyond Africa’s shores. Current dynamics risk an even heavier toll if action is not taken now.
Outside actors have a key role to play, as seen in what ultimately ended the prior conflict — the signing of the Pretoria Agreement, after talks brokered by the African Union with the help of former Nigerian President and AU envoy Olesegun Obasanjo, former South African Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, and former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, and with the support of the United States. But the failure of outside actors to maintain pressure on Ethiopia to implement the agreement, which should have included the withdrawal of Amhara and Eritrean forces from western and southern Tigray, has led to the present precarious moment.
Outside actors, including the African Union and individual African states such as Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa, as well as the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union must:
- Engage Ethiopia at the highest levels to avoid a return to war. President Donald Trump and other world leaders should call Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed directly to warn against a return to war.
- Engage Saudi Arabia and the UAE to abstain from providing weapons to potential combatants and to use their influence to quell tensions.
- Press the U.N. Security Council to call an emergency session.
- Support U.N. and other humanitarian actors in preparing contingency plans now to mitigate the dire effects of a new outbreak of war in the region.
- Urge the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, including by resourcing AU monitors.
Above all, the painful impact of the 2020-2022 war must not be forgotten. The levels of death and suffering from those years are well-established. The greater tragedy would be to let the lessons of that war – the failure to prevent it and the failure to follow through once the fighting stopped — go unheeded and allow what could be an even greater calamity.
– Sarah Miller and Abdullahi Boru Halakhe, Published courtesy of Just Security.
