Significant debates remain underway on some of the most essential aspects of the U.S. contest with China: the nature of the competitor, the main elements of the competition, a sense of what the competition is truly about, what success looks like, and a theory of success to bring about that end. What is clear is that the United States is dealing with a rival whose dynamism derives not from ideological expansion but from economic development, a growing influence in international institutions and processes, and an increasingly strong position in the fields of science and technology.
The competition is clearly something other than a classic power transition; China is rising relative to the United States but not in a straight-line trajectory. China is not set to dominate world politics. Although China is immense and influential, its horizons are not infinite, and its power is counterbalanced by a variety of factors.
This RAND report is the first of several deliverables in a RAND study on U.S.-China competition, and in this report, the authors offer a clear framework for understanding the elements of the competition and placing that framework in a broader conception of the competition’s nature. To build such a conceptualization, the authors reviewed U.S. and Chinese concepts of national power and statecraft and reexamined earlier RAND research on competition. The authors share their findings and deliver initial recommendations for how the United States can devise a strategy to counter China and gain strategic leverage in the competition.
Key Takeaways
- China is conducting a comprehensive and at least partly integrated competitive campaign, both within and across many elements of national power; however, the United States has yet to fully embrace the contest’s scope or invest sufficiently in critical tools of statecraft.
- Seven primary issue areas of national power and influence provide a useful framework for understanding and analyzing the U.S.-China competition.
- Of the seven issue areas, the two foundational issues—the ones of central importance to the future of the competition—are science and technology and domestic economics.
- In addition to the seven issue areas, two critical foundational or contextual factors will play major roles in shaping the rivalry: systems and network dynamics and societal and governance issues.
- At the core of the competition is a contest between two countries seeking to demonstrate that their system best provides for their own people at a time of intense turbulence and instability.
- The stance of third parties could play a decisive role in the competition.
- National resilience, both in peace and in war, will be a leading factor in the unfolding competition.
Recommendations
- The United States should not underestimate the competitive value of policy and technology initiatives that serve the safety, security, prosperity, and opportunity of average Americans.
- The United States should strengthen existing global power alignments, which remain a leading competitive advantage for the United States and can constrain China’s claims to power.
- The United States should devise and implement technology and policy initiatives in the competition’s areas that fall short of armed conflict but are also ones in which China is focusing on gaining an advantage.
- The United States needs to more highly prioritize policy, regulatory, and technological initiatives to address homeland resilience issues.
- The United States should focus its strategic investments on the contest for influence in global digital and artificial intelligence networks.
- The United States should institute governance reforms and develop new, efficient governing institutions and approaches, which will play critical roles in the competition.