Preparing for the Next India-China Border Crisis

Satellite image shows the advance of China on the border with India, in the western Himalayas, June 24, 2020 Photo by MAXAR Technologies via Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect

In recent years, the disputed border between China and India has become the site of growing tensions. Chinese encroachment has sparked clashes along the mostly rugged, mountainous border, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which threaten to lead to all-out conflict between the two Asian giants.

These mounting tensions affect the United States and its Indo-Pacific strategy. Military hostilities between the two large, nuclear-armed countries risk escalating into a conflagration that could involve a third nuclear power: Pakistan. Such a widening conflict would be catastrophic for the region, though it now remains a remote prospect. More likely, border tensions will continue to simmer as China and India strengthen their military capabilities and build up infrastructure along the border. Washington should assist New Delhi in deterring further Chinese attempts to nibble away at Indian territory and be ready to respond quickly in case events spiral out of control.

If fighting intensifies along the LAC, the United States could support India diplomatically and militarily, but without trumpeting this assistance. Washington could find creative ways to bolster New Delhi’s position even if it will not seek to mediate the conflict. But it must pay serious attention. The United States cannot simply ignore this escalating border dispute until it mushrooms into a full conflict, nor can it stay completely on the sidelines.…

– Lisa Curtis and Derek Grossman, RAND Corp. 

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