As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, he confronts a situation on the Korean Peninsula that is remarkably different from his first term, and a North Korean leader who is more assertive than ever thanks to strengthened ties with Russia.
But the unorthodox former president is also uniquely positioned to forge a sustainable path through this dangerous state of affairs due to his personal rapport with Kim Jong-un—if he can acknowledge the infeasibility of denuclearization while still constraining Kim’s most destabilizing tendencies.
When Trump first extended his hand to Kim in Singapore in 2018, the young North Korean dictator likely allowed himself some optimism. After a year of bellicose rhetoric and name-calling, the unprecedented summit represented a rare opportunity to secure international legitimacy and economic relief that had long eluded his secretive regime.
Trump is uniquely positioned to forge a sustainable path through this dangerous state of affairs due to his personal rapport with Kim Jong-un.
The failure of subsequent talks in Hanoi in 2019 dashed these fragile hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough with the United States and left Kim embittered and disillusioned, his dreams of sanctions relief collapsing. In the years since, Kim has embarked on an increasingly militant course, adopting a more aggressive nuclear posture and deploying some 10,000 troops to support Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Yet Trump has held out hopes to revive his friendship with the North Korean leader once back in the White House, and a report that his transition team is exploring direct talks with Kim suggests the two are poised to reunite, albeit with new obstacles standing in the way of a deal.
The End of Juche
For decades, the hereditary dictatorship in North Korea has proudly clung to the doctrine of juche—a philosophy of self-reliance and self-defense that has allowed Pyongyang to relentlessly pursue the development of nuclear weapons. Under this rubric, the DPRK has fiercely pursued economic self-sufficiency to protect its national independence and viewed extensive engagement with the outside world as a threat to the regime’s survival.
No longer. The sight of North Korean troops deploying to Ukraine to support Russia’s brutal invasion marks a dramatic departure from this historical pattern of autarky and self-defense. Kim Jong-un’s decision to actively intervene in an overseas conflict, far beyond its borders, should thus give pause to policymakers in Washington and its regional allies. The world is witnessing the emergence of a more aggressive, Moscow-oriented North Korea that sees Russia as a better long-term partner for its economic and military needs.
