The Russia-Ukraine war is spurring battlefield innovations as both sides leverage AI, gradually turning the war into a battle of algorithms.
In the battle for Chasiv Yar, the constant hum of drones—both enemy and friendly—fills the air. The occasional explosion illuminates them overhead: As the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on, Ukraine’s skies grow increasingly crowded with this new technology. With troops and ammunition in short supply, the country has turned necessity into a strategic asset, relying heavily on cheap drones. This approach has demanded rapid innovation and an all-out push to leverage technology. Now, the stakes in the Russia-Ukraine war have intensified as both sides race to gain an edge through artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled drones. Warfare is steadily transforming into a “clash between algorithms.”
Drones serve a wide range of purposes, from reconnaissance and artillery direction to evacuations and direct attacks. First-person-view (FPV) drones, capable of dropping explosives or acting as kamikaze units, have become especially destructive on the battlefield. In one instance, a Russian soldier pleaded on social media for pump shotguns to counter Ukrainian drones, admitting, “they’re simply burning us.” Both armies now favor motorcycles over armored vehicles, as they create less dust and offer better mobility with a lower profile. Tanks, once the pillars of ground combat, are increasingly overshadowed by unmanned aerial vehicles.
FPV and kamikaze drones have emerged as essential assets in this new era of combat. These cost-effective, scalable tools excel in reconnaissance, artillery spotting, and direct strikes, proving highly effective at targeting enemy positions. The accessibility of drone technology has empowered smaller nations to use inexpensive systems to disrupt traditional military operations typically led by larger, well-funded forces—making Ukraine a “war lab for the future.” Ukraine’s battlefield experience shows that warfare has begun evolving toward the use of unmanned systems, where intelligent machines capable of rapid decisions are poised to dominate future battles—raising both practical and ethical concerns.
The Importance of Drones
The rapid evolution in AI-enabled warfare has driven both sides into a struggle for control, with each country attempting to counter the other’s aerial assets. Last year, Analytics Vidhya described Ukraine as a “goldmine” for AI warfare tech, and the stakes have only intensified as Ukraine pushes for AI mastery. This push is impacting global security dialogues, as military strategists examine what it would mean to dominate the AI-powered “hive mind” of war machines.
Reuters reported that the race for AI-enabled drones is “taking warfare into uncharted territory as combatants race to gain a technological edge in battle.” In Ukraine, AI drone development focuses on three key areas: target identification, terrain mapping for navigation, and the creation of interconnected “swarms” of drones. One company, Swarmer, is building software to network drones, allowing decisions to be executed instantly across a swarm with minimal human input. As Swarmer CEO Serhiy Kupriienko explained, large-scale drone operations are beyond human control alone; managing swarms of 10 to 20 drones is nearly impossible without automation.
Swarmer’s AI system, Styx, coordinates a mix of reconnaissance and strike drones that operate both in the air and on the ground. Each drone can plan its own actions while anticipating the behavior of others in the swarm. Kupriienko noted that AI enables the management of hundreds of drones, far beyond the capacity of human pilots, and that automation also helps protect pilots who operate close to the front lines, reducing their exposure to enemy fire.
AI is already powering some of Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on military facilities and oil refineries deep within Russia. A Ukrainian official, speaking anonymously, told Reuters that these attacks sometimes involve swarms of up to 20 drones. While core drones head toward the target, others focus on disabling or distracting air defenses, using AI with human oversight to identify threats and plan routes along the way.
Russia is well aware of the gains Ukraine has achieved through drone usage and has intensified its efforts to keep pace. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov stated in October that AI-powered drones are playing a pivotal role on the battlefield in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin also said that Russia is increasing drone production nearly 10-fold to approximately 1.4 million this year, aiming to secure victory for the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. In August 2024, Russian officials announced a new 10-year defense strategy that features a dedicated focus on artificial intelligence.
Russia’s efforts have not been futile. In the battle for Chasiv Yar, as many as 90 percent of the wounded Ukrainian soldiers who have made it to a stabilization point were hit by an FPV drone or by explosives dropped by a drone. Dima, a company commander from the 98th Separate Territorial Defense Battalion, told me that the overwhelming majority of his men are being killed or injured by FPV drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. One Ukrainian drone pilot with the 109th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade told me, “Even when we drop explosives from drones on Russians, I sometimes shiver and feel discomfort because I remember all those times I was sitting in a trench. The Russians would shoot at us with everything possible. But the drone was the scariest. A shell can fly and miss and that’s it. But a drone pilot aims and will be very accurate when they drop an explosive.”
Despite these emerging Russian drone capabilities, Ukrainians continue to underscore the importance of the technology to their battlefield successes. In February 2024, Lt. Col. Pavlo Kurylenko remarked, “The only thing preventing Russia’s breakthrough on all fronts is FPV (first-person) drones, 90 percent of which are supplied by volunteers or sourced directly by military divisions themselves.”
Over six months of intense combat in the Avdiivka sector, the Yasni Ochi (“Clear Eyes”) 150-strong drone unit from the 23rd Mechanized Brigade sustained minimal casualties, while reportedly killing or wounding 1,500 Russian soldiers. Ukrainian drone commanders believe they’re holding on in places like Chasiv Yar only due to their drone units.
Danilo Makarov, a drone pilot from the 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, explained that without a drone above to warn soldiers of enemy movements or to help guide an assault, the soldier is a “dead man walking.” Vasyl Shyshola, commander of an aerial reconnaissance unit with Ukraine’s 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade, described the lengths his team goes to recover drones, even navigating minefields, due to their limited supply. Shyshola explained that when Ukrainian soldiers assault a Russian trench, the pressure on the drone pilot is intense—losing the drone could leave troops on the ground without aerial guidance.
“Commanders overseeing a trench assault are watching the drone feed closely, issuing real-time commands to soldiers in the heat of battle,” Shyshola said. If the drone is lost, those on the ground are left effectively blind, vulnerable without the live feed’s support. He explained that while they can quickly redeploy a drone to restore visibility if they have enough in reserve, this is never guaranteed. The Royal United Services Institute estimated in 2023 that Ukraine was losing around 10,000 drones per month.
Advanced Jammers Block Communication
To counter Ukraine’s drone operations, Russia has increasingly relied on sophisticated electronic warfare tactics. As far back as December 2023, the Telegraph noted that Russia’s electronic warfare tactics are contributing to its gaining ground against Ukraine. By deploying advanced jamming systems along the frontline, Russian forces aim to disrupt the communication and navigation systems that Ukrainian drones depend on, particularly GPS signals. In May 2024, as Russia opened a new offensive in Kharkiv, the Washington Post reported that the 125th Territorial Defense Brigade lost all video feeds due to Russian jamming. Starlink satellite devices, crucial for Ukrainian military communications, were also impacted. This jamming, which breaks the connection between drones and their operators, saturates the radio frequencies controlling UAVs, effectively blinding operators and rendering drones inoperable.
Ukrainian soldiers can even lose their signal within a mile of flying due to Russian jamming. Russia uses its jamming technology to overpower Ukrainian signals by broadcasting on the same frequencies, but at much higher power. A drone operator might then employ a tactic known as “frequency hopping,” which involves quickly switching between different frequencies to evade a jammer’s signal. However, this approach can still be countered by algorithms capable of predicting and disrupting the hopping patterns.
Norman, a drone unit commander from the 109th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, reflected on the early days of the war, when Ukrainian soldiers could deploy drones freely and often with little coordination. “Back then, things were disorganized, and soldiers could launch drones from practically anywhere,” he explained. Now, however, operations require strict organization to counteract Russian electronic warfare. Dmytro Lysenko, a drone pilot from the 109th Brigade—who died in May fighting on the front in Donetsk Oblast—shared that, during the peak of the battle for Avdiivka, Ukrainian pilots sometimes had to fly over 8 kilometers around the battlefield and circle back to evade Russian jamming systems. He further emphasized the shortage of drones within Ukrainian units, noting that they are frequently lost to electronic interference or adverse weather conditions.
AI Scales Up
According to Lexus (callsign), a drone pilot from the special unit “Kondor” of the 1st Presidential Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, his team has been enhancing its FPV drones with AI modifications costing as little as $100 to $200 per unit. These AI models, trained by volunteer engineers, use computer vision to identify and lock onto targets with precision. “The AI captures the target and guides the drone directly to strike it,” Lexus explained. One Ukrainian drone pilot from the 23rd Mechanized Brigade fighting in Chasiv Yar believes that in the near future, heavy armor may be unable to get within 10 kilometers of the front lines, as autonomous drones are likely to patrol the skies, systematically targeting and destroying any approaching heavy armor.
Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Kateryna Chernohorenko, told the Telegraph that incorporating AI into one-way attack drones could make them less vulnerable to Russian electronic warfare, allowing pilots to control them from safer distances. Fedir Martynov, head of the TAF Drones Innovation Hub in Ukraine, emphasized that the need for AI-driven drones aims to overcome Russian jamming efforts entirely. “We’re focused on last-mile targeting with AI models in our drones. That’s the current frontier,” he stated, predicting that partner companies will soon deploy solutions to address this critical challenge.
Martynov noted that the primary bottleneck lies not in the algorithm itself but in acquiring sufficient training data to refine these models. The demand for comprehensive data—footage capturing tanks in motion, troop behavior, and environmental factors—is essential for improved targeting. This real-time data collection directly on the battlefield provides Ukraine a tactical edge and a distinct advantage over many Western counterparts in drone development.
The insatiable need for data isn’t unique to combat drones; advanced AI models, including some of the world’s most powerful systems, rely on constant data flows for improvement. The New York Times reported that the “race to lead A.I. has become a desperate hunt for the digital data needed to advance the technology.” This demand for data, both organic and synthetic, drives AI innovation globally and is equally vital on the battlefield.
According to Martynov, U.S. companies have reached out with inquiries about field-testing weaponized drones. “If companies abroad are serious about weaponization and validation, Ukraine’s battlefield is the proving ground,” he remarked. U.S. defense tech company Anduril recently started selling its new autonomous drones after successful tests that were carried out in Ukraine. Ukrainian and Western drone manufacturers are also partnering more closely on both drones and AI development. The U.S.—in its desire to speed up the deployment of cheap autonomous systems through its “Replicator” program—is also working with the private sector to bring more of these drones into operation.
Max Makarchuk, AI lead for BRAVE1, a defense tech accelerator launched by the Ukrainian government, noted that FPV drone strike rates have declined steadily, with most units now hitting targets only 30-50 percent of the time. For less experienced pilots, this rate can fall to as low as 10 percent. However, Makarchuk projected that integrating AI into FPV drones could greatly boost accuracy, potentially increasing hit rates to around 80 percent.
Recognizing these advantages, Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine are rapidly evolving through a decentralized ecosystem of volunteer initiatives, commercial innovation, and opportunistic deployment of off-the-shelf technologies. These efforts include developing AI-enabled drones like the Shturm 1.2 heavy quadcopter drone, which Russia claims has semi-autonomous capabilities such as target recognition and projectile deployment. Volunteer groups, bolstered by donations from citizens, private businesses, and government-linked entities, are also leveraging commercial technologies to create inexpensive yet sophisticated systems, including kamikaze drones and autonomous quadcopters. Russia is heavily focused on minimizing drone operator involvement in combat, aiming to remove operators from the equation entirely through AI. The Russians appear unconcerned about deploying autonomous systems on the battlefield, allowing them to carry out lethal operations independently.
An Oppenheimer Moment for the 21st Century
As the Wall Street Journal reported, “Electronic warfare is rapidly evolving, pushing drone makers to swap out parts and make craft more autonomous” in Ukraine. Politico noted that the era of “robot wars” has dawned, calling this our “Oppenheimer moment.” As analysts and technologists sound alarms over the urgency of this AI supremacy race, comparisons to Oppenheimer’s reckoning with the “destroyer of worlds” become eerily pertinent, casting a shadow over the potential impacts of AI-enabled force.
Futurists have pondered humanity’s potential end at the hands of a weaponized, self-guided machine. Earlier this year, West Point’s Lieber Institute warned that the AI supremacy race is “not only dangerous but morally inexcusable.” The future of warfare may be defined by which side can establish a superior hive mind—a network of machines working together seamlessly, adapting to battlefield conditions faster than any human operator could manage alone.
However, that isn’t to say that AI will mean an end to human involvement. As the battlefield shifts toward autonomous systems, human-driven logistics and maintenance will remain indispensable to support these operations. Michael Kofman pointed out on “The Russia Contingency” podcast that the deployment of autonomous systems brings practical challenges: What happens when these systems malfunction or break down? Even the most advanced autonomous drones or robots will require human operators to repair, maintain, and redeploy them efficiently. Thus, while AI and automation may revolutionize frontline capabilities, the logistics backbone—managed and maintained by human hands—will continue to play an important role in sustaining battlefield operations.
Lexus previously spoke of the growing AI drone arms race on the battlefield in 2023. Whoever is first to bring fully autonomous drones to battle will have a clear advantage. But this introduces significant moral questions, Lexus noted, “What happens if the drones target civilians? What does Ukraine do if Russian soldiers begin dressing as civilians to avoid targeting?”
Lexus echoed the confounded sensibility felt by modern warfare analysts, saying: “The stakes are monumental. If we lag in pioneering these autonomous drones, adversaries like the Russians might outpace us, and they do not care how many innocent people they kill,” he said.
Paul Lushenko, assistant professor and director of special operations at the U.S. Army War College, said: “Ukrainian officials better slow down to train these models to distinguish between legitimate and illegitimate targets since it risks losing international legitimacy if it doesn’t, which has important implications for the will of its primary patron—the United States—to continue to enable its operations with military hardware and other assistance.”
Lushenko mentioned the case of Israel and its controversial use of AI targeting in Gaza, with innocent people caught in the middle. “Their use of AI has resulted in a lot of collateral damage, which has hurt their reputation,” he said. Lushenko said that fully autonomous drones won’t be a silver bullet for Ukraine either but acknowledged that the rapid development of AI-enabled drones has quickly “outpaced the doctrine” that we have in place. “Whichever side can acquire a target first with AI will have an advantage,” he added.
The use of AI-enabled drones raises profound ethical questions: If machines can make life-and-death decisions, what rules govern their deployment? How can creators ensure that the targeted individual poses a genuine military threat? This technology will likely necessitate new international regulations and amendments to existing laws.
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Ukraine’s leaders understand that defeating Russia in a traditional war of attrition is unlikely; instead, they are harnessing the agility and technological innovation they have demonstrated since February 2022. Focused on survival, Ukraine is navigating a rapidly intensifying AI drone arms race where the victor secures a vital advantage. Given the stakes, Ukraine has little choice but to press forward—presenting both challenges and opportunities not only for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but for the future of warfare itself.
– David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. His work on warfare has been featured in the Atlantic Council, Center for European Policy Analysis, and The Economist, among many others. Published courtesy of Lawfare.
