Ukraine has key questions it wants answered as army chiefs from over 30 countries arrive Tuesday in Paris for talks on creating an international force to deter future Russian aggression once a ceasefire is established. They include troop size, location and, crucially, military options in the event of a transgression.
The Paris meeting is the most significant culmination so far of French and British efforts to rally nations under a so-called “coalition of the willing” to safeguard Ukraine by establishing a reassurance and deterrence force to dissuade Russia from invading again.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who is to attend the meeting, said it would be held in “close coordination” with the NATO alliance.
The talks will include nearly all 32 NATO countries — notably without the United States — as well as Commonwealth nations and Asian powers Japan and South Korea, said a French military official. Participants will be invited to spell out what their militaries might be able and willing to contribute, be that troops, weapons or other assistance.
French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said “this meeting is important because it lays the ground for these security guarantees” and how “European armed forces can gain credit and credibility for diplomatic talks which will, unquestionably, extend over the long term.”
Some Ukrainian officials are wary of any deal without clearly identified security guarantees. For them, a key question is how such a coalition will respond if Russia violates any future ceasefire agreement. What kind of military response would follow a large-scale offensive by Russia and how quickly will that response materialize?
Western and Ukrainian officials said that, while there is plenty of thinking and resolve, there is no definitive plan for military options yet. First, they must assess what willing countries might be able to offer. The Associated Press spoke to Western and Ukrainian officials in Kyiv, as well as French officials in Paris and British officials in London. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to speak openly about sensitive matters.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed the proposal but expressed skepticism, telling The AP in an interview in February that foreign troops alone would not be a sufficient guarantee of security for his country, and that such a plan should be backed up by weapons from the U.S. and Europe, and support for Kyiv to develop its own defense industry.
“Diplomats are discussing, military officials are discussing, but we still don’t have real proposals,” said a senior Ukrainian official about the plan. The talks “are not in the first stage, we did a lot in the first stage, but we still don’t have a real solid approach.”
What means of deterrence?
As President Donald Trump has appeared to nix the idea of U.S. security guarantees and other U.S. officials said this will fall on Europe to enforce, the French-British plan looks to create a force equipped with enough military might to dissuade Russia from attacking Ukraine again. “That is the crux of it,” said a Western official in Kyiv.
The force being envisaged by France and Britain would aim to reassure Ukraine and deter another large-scale Russian offensive after any ceasefire, a French military official told AP. It could include heavy weaponry and weapons stockpiles that could be rushed within hours or days to aid in Ukraine’s defense in the event of a Russian attack that shatters any truce, the official said.
The Western official in Kyiv, offering another idea on the table, said they could incorporate direct and immediate strikes on Russian assets in the event of a violation.
Details of the contours of the proposal have emerged piecemeal in recent weeks as technical discussions have been ongoing between Western diplomatic and military officials in Ukraine and other European capitals.
Political leaders have convened key summits in the past two months to establish common ground. It was discussed at a summit of more than a dozen mostly European leaders in London on March 2, and at a virtual planning meeting on March 5 called by the U.K. and attended by officials from about 20 countries.
France and Britain are now casting the net even wider in their search for nations willing to back the blueprint and provide the force with teeth. The Paris talks on Tuesday will include not just NATO and European Union nations but also Asian and Oceania countries. Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea will dial into the discussions remotely, the French military official said. Turkey, which has the largest army in NATO and a robust defense industry and shared stakes in the Black Sea, will attend. NATO nation Canada will also be represented.
The United States — NATO’s most militarily powerful member — was not invited because European nations want to show that they are able to shoulder a large part of the job of safeguarding Ukraine once a truce is in effect, the French military official said.
The contours of a plan
Last month, some Western officials described a small Europe-dominated “reassurance force” of less than 30,000 troops, rather than an ambitious army of peacekeepers posted along the 600-mile (1,000 kilometer) front line.
But other officials have said the numbers were under discussion. According to one version of the proposal, troops would be posted away from the front line at key infrastructure sites such as nuclear power plants and backed by Western air and sea power. The front line would largely be monitored remotely, with drones and other technology. Air power, including U.S. air power based outside Ukraine, perhaps in Poland or Romania, would be in reserve to deter breaches and reopen Ukrainian airspace to commercial flights.
Allied navies could also play a role in the Black Sea clearing mines and patrolling to keep international waters safe.
The idea is to “aggregate” the capabilities those countries are ready to provide in order to be able to offer security guarantees to make sure the peace deal is “robust and verifiable,” with the aim to get some U.S. backstop, another French official said.
“To get signals on the U.S. backstop, the ‘able and willing’ European countries must be able to aggregate their capabilities and demands,” he said.
Cautious Ukrainian optimism
Some Western officials cautioned that there will be several stages to a peace plan and a broader range of countries could join the coalition later on. The first step could be a one-month freeze, as proposed by Zelenskyy and European leaders, as a confidence building measure.
The Ukrainian officials said they were optimistic about the coalition of the willing, conceding they have few other options with NATO off the table.
“I fully believe it’s very possible,” said one senior Ukrainian official. “Trump is comfortable with the idea, the idea is very positive for us, and if Europe wants to be a real player, they should do this.”
“If they lose this opportunity, we will be in a very difficult situation,” he added.
– Samya Kullab and John Leicester, AP News
