This summer, mandate was given to Ursula von der Leyen to lead the European Commission again and form a new college of commissioners. Candidates will soon go through parliamentary hearings. Before her re-election, von der Leyen set out her main priorities for 2025 to 2029, including investment in infrastructure and industry, the EU defence union, and housing. However, a question remains: will foresight keep its place and significance at the top EU level?
Foresight is structured exploration of possible future developments to better anticipate and prepare for the future. It is not about predicting what will happen, because uncertainties prevent predictability. Action-oriented, it treats the future as something that can be shaped in a participatory way. Its use has increased in both the public and private sectors for the past several decades as a tool that can support decisionmaking in uncertain times.
In 2019, foresight was assigned as a specific responsibility to one of the 27 commissioners of the European Commission (2019–2024) for the first time. Maroš Šefčovič (PDF), appointed as Vice President for Inter-institutional Relations and Foresight, was tasked with embedding strategic foresight into EU policymaking. This way, the European Union would be able to make better strategic decisions and future-proof policies considering various long-term trends, drivers, and uncertainties. Such considerations were especially (PDF) relevant in the face of structural problems laid bare by crises like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Foresight is structured exploration of possible future developments to better anticipate and prepare for the future.
Though Šefčovič considered foresight to be a ‘true game-changer’, it is not new, nor are attempts to embed long-term perspectives in policymaking. The first foresight methods were developed almost a century ago (e.g the Delphi method or scenario planning, developed by RAND in the 1950s). The commission first started using foresight in support of EU policymaking in mid-1980s, through the Cellule de prospective (Forward Studies Unit). In the following two decades, foresight was scattered across different departments, such as the Joint Research Centre and Research and Innovation. In 2009 (PDF), at the initiative of the European Parliament, the European Strategy and Political Analysis System was created to promote foresight and anticipatory governance through EU interinstitutional dialogue. Investment in developing foresight capacities gained momentum with the formal establishment of the Competence Centre on Foresight in 2018.
The first von der Leyen Commission, then, aimed to encourage anticipatory culture in Europe and make foresight mainstream (PDF). To this end, it was integrated into the EU’s 2021 revision of the better regulation guidelines and toolbox, and several policy initiatives have used it in their impact assessments.
By making foresight a political priority, the commission aimed (PDF) to strengthen EU capacity to deal with an increasingly volatile and complex world by grounding short-term actions in long-term objectives. The Vice President for Foresight was tasked with producing a yearly foresight report to improve priority setting and steer distinct policies towards the same long-term direction with topics such as open strategic autonomy and sustainability. Other tasks included foresight briefs, newsletters, internal training, as well as overall projects. Several networks have been created, including an internal Strategic Foresight Network and an external EU-wide Strategic Foresight Network on the ministerial level.
Based on the work done in the period 2019–2024, the European Union now has a much more systematic approach to foresight that is increasingly integrated into the EU policy cycle. Von der Leyen is currently in the final stages of putting up a team for the new college of commissioners to be installed in November and allocating the portfolios. As there is still much to do and gain in strengthening EU preparedness as well as anticipatory, evidence-based policymaking, we argue that foresight should be retained as a specific portfolio.
An advantage of foresight is its ability to overcome short-termism in policymaking by offering a longer-term perspective.
An advantage of foresight is its ability to overcome short-termism in policymaking by offering a longer-term perspective. Fostering a forward-thinking approach in a participatory way not only enhances resilience against potential shocks and risks, but also uncovers future opportunities and pathways to capitalise on them. Above all, foresight helps policymakers understand uncertainties, empowering them to design policies in a participatory way that can withstand uncertain context conditions of an ever-changing world.
As complexity and uncertainty continue to grow through, for example, geopolitical shifts, technological developments, and climate change, the need for long-term vision and preparedness for varying possible futures equally becomes more important, not less. Whilst a lot has been achieved in integrating foresight in the first steps of the policy process (i.e. understanding the issues and agenda-setting), the insights gathered through the EU’s foresight efforts are sometimes neglected in policy formulation. The mission of a new foresight commissioner should therefore focus on making foresight more actionable, including by making difficult and strategic choices to serve future generations rather than being guided by short-term incentives. Considering increasing social vulnerabilities, regional diversity, and the factors causing public dissatisfaction, foresight can strengthen resilience and participatory governance across the EU.
– Fook Nederveen and Lucia Vesnić-Alujević are researchers at RAND Europe’s Centre for Futures and Foresight Studies (CFFS).
