Sharpening the Sword and Burnishing the Shield
Despite clear strategic guidance identifying China as the primary pacing threat, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) lacks a coordinated, scalable, and sustained approach for developing and utilizing China-relevant expertise—such as language skills, cultural understanding, and regional knowledge—across its workforce. This gap raises concerns about the USAF’s ability to effectively anticipate and compete with China in a complex, evolving strategic environment.
In this RAND report, the authors assess how the USAF develops, recognizes, and applies China-relevant expertise, drawing on interviews with airmen and educators, policy and document analysis, and historical case studies. The findings reveal that China-focused expertise remains limited in scale, unevenly recognized, and inconsistently applied, despite sustained strategic emphasis on competition with China.
To help close this gap, the authors outline considerations for strengthening how China-relevant knowledge and skills are developed, tracked, and leveraged across the USAF workforce in support of long-term strategic competition.
Key Findings
- Strategic guidance has outpaced implementation. Despite repeated national strategies identifying China as the pacing threat, USAF efforts to build China expertise remain fragmented and inconsistently prioritized.
- Cold War models demonstrated the value of breadth and depth. Historical analysis reveals that institutionalized training, doctrine, and rotational assignments enabled deep Soviet operational knowledge, in contrast to the ad hoc and reactive learning during the Global War on Terror.
- Career disincentives undermine regional specialization. During historical eras and today, officers pursuing regional or language expertise often face career penalties, making specialization a “career killer.”
- Educational programs show pockets of strength. Where implemented, instruction offers valuable insights into Chinese strategy, language, and global influence—but these programs suffer from resource constraints.
- Talent identification and tracking systems are weak. Tools, such as special experience identifiers, and developmental programs, such as the Language Enabled Airman Program, are inconsistently applied, poorly understood, and fail to match talent with relevant assignments.
- Leadership is a critical variable. Command support can enable effective application of China expertise, but many leaders deprioritize regional skills in favor of conventional advancement paths.
- Motivated individuals face systemic obstacles. Airmen with a strong personal drive to develop China expertise often navigate unclear pathways, limited institutional support, and underutilization of their skills after training.
Recommendations
- Implement a tiered framework for developing China-relevant knowledge. A developmental model—ranging from general awareness to strategic leadership—can help scale and deepen China-relevant knowledge.
- Curate and integrate resources for learning about China. Existing China-related training resources are fragmented and difficult to navigate. Establishing a systematic process for curating and integrating information and resources could address this.
- Improve identification and tracking of expertise. The USAF lacks a reliable system to identify who possesses China-relevant knowledge, making it difficult to assign the right personnel to key missions or development opportunities.
– Published courtesy of RAND.
