Scrambling to bolster defence postures, the European Union has focused on strengthening its defence industry, pouring money into domestic production and lowering barriers to collaboration. While this internal investment is critical, the European Union must also look to allies beyond its borders. And one key partner is hiding in plain sight: Turkey.
In recent days and weeks, reports have been swirling that Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is considering a troop contribution to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. Behind the scenes, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is already urging deeper cooperation between Turkey and the European Union.
Turkey has not always been an easy ally of the West. Erdoğan has frequently used his country’s NATO membership as leverage to extract concessions, delaying coordinated action in Libya in 2011 and holding up Finland and Sweden’s accession to the alliance, for example. This transactional approach is unlikely to change. But here’s the crucial point: Turkey has largely honoured the deals it has struck. And Turkey lacks the political or economic leverage to simply walk away from agreements.
Moreover, Turkey’s core geopolitical interests—and, arguably, its vision for international stability—remain aligned with NATO. Ankara has played a critical role in supporting Ukraine, supplying military aid and upholding the Montreux Convention, which restricts Russian naval movement. Turkey’s deep-seated mistrust of Russia, stemming from centuries of conflict and competition, continues to shape its strategic calculations.
Turkey’s core geopolitical interests—and, arguably, its vision for international stability—remain aligned with NATO.
Every NATO member contributes something unique, and Turkey is no exception. It offers military mass, a robust defence industry, and diplomatic reach beyond Europe. With NATO’s second-largest army, Turkey brings sheer numbers to the alliance, an invaluable factor when defending long frontiers or maintaining a forward presence. While some of its troops are conscripts, making them less battle-ready than professional forces, quantity remains a decisive advantage in modern warfare.
Turkey’s defence industry has grown significantly, benefitting from decades of investment and technology transfer. While Turkish equipment, such as the Bayraktar TB2 drone, may not be as technologically advanced as its Western counterparts, it has proven cost-effective and highly effective in combat. Ukraine’s battlefield success with Turkish UAVs underscores the value of rugged, easily producible weapons over cutting-edge but scarce alternatives. In an era where rapid resupply is crucial, Turkey’s capacity for mass production is a strategic asset.
